Markets
How early and how accurately can MPA's monthly figures be read from daily declarations?
Every number below was predicted out of sample, before MPA published it.
Complete months of declarations
141Months
MPA publication lag
16 d
after month end
Bunker nowcast error
3.6%
out of sample, 116 months
'Same as last month' error
4.4%
'Same change as last year' error
5.6%
Mean absolute error out of sample: our nowcast vs the better of 'same as last month' and 'same change as last year'. Shorter nowcast bar = sellable edge.
Every point predicted using only data available before MPA published it.
01 Jan 2017 – 01 Aug 2026|Out-of-sample monthly nowcasts vs the official figure
Monthly calls from our declarations vs MPA's statistics. The level gap is stable and corrected by the nowcast; the month-to-month moves are what matter.
01 Jan 2015 – 01 Sep 2026|Monthly declared calls vs MPA's published calls