Signals & forecasts
How early and how accurately can MPA's monthly figures be estimated from daily declarations, before MPA publishes them? (A nowcast: an estimate of the present, not a forecast of the future.)
Retrieved
Exactly what MPA published, collected every 10 min to hourly. Counts and sums only, no model.
Before any model: declared calls, counted, against what MPA later publishes.
Forecast
Our models' predictions, each shown with its out-of-sample track record.
Every series month by month: read from declarations as the month runs, scored when MPA publishes.
Every number below was predicted out of sample, before MPA published it.
Complete months of declarations
142Months
MPA publication lag
16 d
after month end
Nov 2026 bunker sales, whole month (projected)
5,339 kt
kt = thousand tonnes. Projected from declarations of 1-5 Nov (day 5 of 30); likely range 4,800-5,903 kt
Nov 2026 projection vs market expectation
▲ +11.7%
expected 4,782 kt = Nov 2025 grown by the latest year-on-year change MPA has published
Oct 2026 bunker sales, whole month (final estimate)
5,218 kt
kt = thousand tonnes. Month complete; MPA publishes about 16 Nov. Likely range 4,947-5,504 kt
Higher than 58% of its readings over the last 7 days
Our bunker sales estimate: typical miss
3.5%
average gap to MPA's figure over 117 past months, each estimated before MPA published it
Guessing 'same as last month': typical miss
4.4%
same past months, for comparison
Guessing 'same change as last year': typical miss
5.6%
same past months, for comparison
Monthly calls from our declarations vs MPA's statistics. The level gap is stable and corrected by our estimates; the month-to-month moves are what matter.
01 Jan 2015 – 01 Oct 2026|Monthly declared calls vs MPA's published calls
Average miss against MPA's figure over past months, each estimated before MPA published it: ours vs the better of two simple guesses ('same as last month', 'same change as last year'). Shorter = better.
Built fromArrival declarations · hourlyMPA monthly statistics
Every point predicted using only data available before MPA published it.
Built fromArrival declarations · hourlyMPA monthly statistics
01 Jan 2017 – 01 Sep 2026|Out-of-sample monthly nowcasts vs the official figure
Each day's whole-month estimate as the month's declarations come in, with its likely range (10th-90th percentile of past misses at that stage). Dashed grey = what a desk without this data expects (same change as last year). Solid = recorded live, never revised; dashed purple = days before live recording began, reconstructed. Pick a series and month above.
Built fromArrival declarations · hourlyMPA monthly statistics
05 Sep 2026 – 07 Nov 2026|How each month's nowcast moved day by day, vs expected and official
IN PROGRESS = month not over: whole-month projection from the days declared so far, updated daily. AWAITING MPA = month over: final estimate, waiting for MPA's figure (collected automatically when published). PUBLISHED = MPA's figure is out and our last estimate before it is scored. Every figure is a whole calendar month, in the series' unit (kt = thousand tonnes, GT = Gross Tonnage, TEU = Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit). Likely range = 10th-90th percentile of past misses at the same stage. vs expected = our estimate against what the market assumes without this data: the same month last year, grown by the latest year-on-year change MPA has published. Published months show our last estimate before MPA's release: recorded live where we have it, otherwise the backtest. Series where our estimate has not beaten simple guesses are left out.
| Bunker sales | Nov 2026 | IN PROGRESS | 5 of 30 | 5,339 kt | ▲ +11.7% | – | – |
| Bunker sales | Oct 2026 | AWAITING MPA | All 31 | 5,218 kt | ▲ +9.2% | – | – |
| Bunker sales | Sep 2026 | PUBLISHED | All 30 | 4,680 kt | ▲ +2.2% | 4,726 kt | ▼ −1.0% |
| Bunker sales | Aug 2026 | PUBLISHED | All 31 | 4,762 kt | ▼ −0.5% | 4,773 kt | ▼ −0.2% |
| Bunker sales | Jul 2026 | PUBLISHED | All 31 | 4,786 kt | ▼ −4.3% | 4,740 kt | ▲ +1.0% |
| Bunker calls | Nov 2026 | IN PROGRESS | 5 of 30 | 3,997 Calls | ▲ +7.0% | – | – |
| Bunker calls | Oct 2026 | AWAITING MPA | All 31 | 3,965 Calls | ▲ +2.8% | – | – |
| Bunker calls | Sep 2026 | PUBLISHED | All 30 | 3,649 Calls | ▲ +4.3% | 3,617 Calls | ▲ +0.9% |
| Bunker calls | Aug 2026 | PUBLISHED | All 31 | 3,615 Calls | ▼ −0.4% | 3,588 Calls | ▲ +0.8% |
| Bunker calls | Jul 2026 | PUBLISHED | All 31 | 3,662 Calls | ▼ −5.7% | 3,675 Calls | ▼ −0.3% |
| Tanker arrivals | Nov 2026 | IN PROGRESS | 5 of 30 | 2,375 Calls | ▲ +9.1% | – | – |
| Tanker arrivals | Oct 2026 | AWAITING MPA | All 31 | 2,349 Calls | ▲ +3.6% | – | – |
Built fromArrival declarations · hourlyMPA monthly statistics
01 Jul 2026 – 01 Nov 2026|Each month: under way, awaiting MPA, or published and scored