Bunker Demand

Forward demand: 119 bunkering calls expected in the next 24 h

Each ship due in the next 72 h weighted by its calibrated probability of declaring bunkering. 6-hour blocks.

Track record: the 72 h bunker model, AUC 0.89

Out of sample, deep-sea calls. Predicted vs actual bunkering rate by decile; on the line = honest probabilities.

Refuel-only stops: 37.1% of bunker calls

Calls declaring bunkering and nothing else. Discretionary stops: a read on Singapore's price competitiveness vs rival hubs.

Bunker calls vs the same days in past years

Ships declaring a bunkering call per day, 28-day average, by day of year.

Ships due in 72 h, most likely to bunker first

Bunker sales, month by month: under way, awaiting MPA, published and scored

IN PROGRESS = month not over: whole-month projection from the days declared so far, updated daily. AWAITING MPA = month over: final estimate, waiting for MPA's figure (collected automatically when published). PUBLISHED = MPA's figure is out and our last estimate before it is scored. Every figure is a whole calendar month, in the series' unit (kt = thousand tonnes, GT = Gross Tonnage, TEU = Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit). Likely range = 10th-90th percentile of past misses at the same stage. vs expected = our estimate against what the market assumes without this data: the same month last year, grown by the latest year-on-year change MPA has published.

Track record: our estimate vs MPA's figure, month by month

Backtest: every point predicted using only data available before MPA published it.

How the bunker sales estimate has moved, day by day

Each day's whole-month estimate as the month's declarations come in, with its likely range (10th-90th percentile of past misses at that stage). Dashed grey = what a desk without this data expects (same change as last year). Solid = recorded live, never revised; dashed purple = days before live recording began, reconstructed.